Dovewood Capital, LLC

12/04/23 - S&P 500 

  • S&P 500 Close: 4569.78 (-0.54%)
  • Model vs S&P 500: Model Win  
  • Net Implied Return (%) - Overall S&P 500: +0.03%
  • View Today's Real-Time S&P 500 Net Implied Return (%)

'Making Finance Friendly - Linking Ability To Learning.'

Innovation | Disruption | Transformation | Simplification | Confidence | Courage | Success

  • Applying Innovative Data-Analytics to Simplify Complex Market Behaviors & Interpretations
  • Facilitate Industry Disruption Resulting In Transformational Finance Initiatives 
  • Primary Initiatives are those Aimed at Closing the Market Participation Gap where ALL can comfortably & prudently participate & experience the positive benefits of Capital Markets
  • Accomplished through uniquely created content characterized by innovation, education, relevant information only (no noise/bias) and communicated primarily through visualization mediums, resulting in simpler, broader & deeper experience where understanding, comprehension & retention are achieved


View Results in Virtual Real-Time

Daily Top 10 Model Impression Stocks Period Performance Summary Results (08/28/23 - To-Date)


View Results in Virtual Real-Time

Daily Top 10 Model Impression Stocks Weekly Performance Summary Results (12/04/23 - 12/08/23)

What is Your Level of Financial Experience?

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The level of experience is somewhat irrelevant when it comes to exploring our services, as our Model has done (mostly) all of the work, meaning risk elements like macro, micro and geo-political events are already built in (implied) if they have occurred meaning the Model & the market have experienced them, thereby registering their performance in that specific environment allowing the Model to capture the critical data necessary. The Model does not account for things that it has yet to experience (avoiding the noise), so it learns as it goes along, and provides the best impression stocks each day to the best of its ability, given the knowledge & data collection it has experienced (i.e. economic data, geo-political events/risks, etc.).  

Additionally, we have found much of these "risk-on" events have already been priced into the market before they are officially recognized & introduced, reducing some volatility.  It is the "surprise" events that the market typically does not like, and as a result, the Model lacks the specific behavioral experience & reaction initially, until it has had an opportunity to process the data and recalibrate accordingly.  

The Daily S&P 500 Model 
Impression Stock Rankings

Daily S&P 500 Performance + S&P 500 Model Impression Application = Proven S&P 500 Index Outperformance.

The Daily Model Impression Stocks are selected each trading day (post market close) undergoing a rigorous & thorough performance analysis utilizing our proprietary, time-tested modeling methodologies including performance over time under various S&P 500 market conditions (stress testing each stock). 

What we found is a great deal of probability could be extrapolated from the Model's design based on numeric sequencing.  Each stock is assigned a ranking based on several performance attributes, then the stocks are tracked by their unique rank order over time (several years) resulting in a highly probable & predictable movement from the prior day to the next day.  

We have concluded the results are very reliable, consistent & conclusive, outperforming the S&P 500 75% of the time (win rate), and providing an average daily return of 0.47% vs the S&P 500 Index +0.05%.  We measure the Model's effectiveness using 3 metrics: 1) Total Return (%), 2) Avg. Daily Return (%) and 3) Win Rate % which is the rate at which the Model outperforms the S&P 500 Index on a cumulative basis for the ascribed period.

Kelly Horak has more than two decades of experience in various finance roles and industries, from mortgage banking and portfolio analytics, to business consulting and financial publishing. As the founder of Dovewood Capital LLC, he combines his passion and creativity for problem-solving, communicating, and leading with his expertise and skills in financial markets, operations, and data analysis.

The relentless and rigorous Model data collection techniques, observations and strategies have evolved to a point of great reliability and conclusiveness, and therefore he created a wholly owned subsidiary of Dovewood Capital, LLC, to apply all of his learnings to a business-oriented financial website ( that focuses on providing the Model’s S&P 500 daily stock impressions (ranked). 

The results have been consistent, reliable, and conclusive enough to the point where Kelly is comfortable sharing this data with others and he is very confident he will be successful as it has just recently launched.

His goal is to succeed every day, and to outperform the S&P 500 Index consistently (85% of the time) by a large margin. He is currently beating the Index 75% of the time by an average margin of +43 BPS, but he fully believes he can consistently achieve +75 BPS margin, however understands there is much work & time remaining to get there, but we are on the right trajectory particularly in such a sustained treacherous market.

This is a great challenge he realizes, however it’s one that he is very passionate about, and that is what drives his entrepreneurial spirit each day, and will not stop until he achieves his objectives.

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